17 June 2008

A small quiz for you

Judges

In the June edition of ABA Journal there was a small article about how judges make mistakes because, like most humans, they are intuitive rather than cognitive in rendering their decisions. In other words, they tend to go with the obvious, quick answer rather than the correct, logical answer.

To prove this, 295 Florida trial judges were given this three-question quiz developed by professor Shane Frederick of the Massachusetts Institution of Technology. Only 15 percent of the judges got all three answers correct and 31 percent of the judges got all three wrong.

The judges should not feel bad, while that rate was below students at Harvard, it was better than the students at the University of Michigan.

Take the following test and see how you do. If you get all three right, that means you are cognitive. If you get all three wrong, you are intuitive. Post your answers in the comment box. Don't be ashamed. This is not an intelligence test. Lots of very smart people get these wrong. This is about how you think, not how smart you are.

I will post the answers later in the week. Have fun!

Cognitive Reflection Test

  1. A bat and a ball cost $1.10 total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
  2. If it takes five machines five minutes to make five widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets.
  3. In a lake, there's a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake.


1. $ 0.10

2. Five minutes

3. Forty seven days

17 June 2008 16:31:16
1. $0.05

2. 5 minutes

3. 47 days

17 June 2008 17:58:43
I have answered numbers 2 and 3 previously (and got them both right) but have never seen question #1. I'm going with AverageGuy; the answer is, that the ball cost $0.05...

17 June 2008 21:08:40
1) 10 cents

2) 100 minutes

3) 47 Days

17 June 2008 21:26:10
Average guy,
You stump me on the $0.05. Trying to figure out how you got that. Don't tell me though! Want to wait for Tom to give the answers. Just a nagging feeling that qeustion 1 is a trick qeustion. confused

17 June 2008 21:47:03
ooops.... 5 cents is correct. ball=.05 bat=1.05 .05+1.05=1.10

17 June 2008 21:51:00
?

17 June 2008 21:53:17
1. .05
2. 100
3. 47

17 June 2008 22:35:24
I got all three correct but I had to stop myself from the obvious quick shotter answers

1. a nickle
2. 5 minutes
3. 47 days biggrin

18 June 2008 17:10:09
Took me forever to understand why #1 was $.05 instead of $.10 (I get it now). #2 (5 minutes) came pretty easily to me. #3, I am embarassed to admit that I gave up after thinking about it for maybe 5 minutes. My mind doesn't think backwards like that, the answer, now that I see what it is, is really so simple, I'm kicking myself for not getting it.

Now, Tom, the MOST important question is.... how did YOU do on the quiz?

18 June 2008 22:21:46
Give us the answers already, Tom, and like Susan said, how did you do?

19 June 2008 20:47:53
1. .10
2. 5 min.
3. 47 days

10-4 on give the answers Mr. L.

19 June 2008 23:02:42
1. definately $.05
we know that B+BL=1.1
AND (B) + (B+1.0)=1.1
b=.05

2. 5 MIN
WE KNOW THAT EACH MACHINE MAKES 1 WIDGET IN 5 MIN SO 100 MACHINES MAKE 100 WIDGETS IN THE SAME TIME

3. i'M LOGICING THROUGH THIS BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A WHILE FOR THIS TYPE OF PROBLE BUT MY ANSWER IS 47 DAYS. SEEMS LOGICAL THAT IF X^2(4 cool =L
THAN EVERY TIME IT DOULBE WE GET TO THE END BEFORE IT DOUBLES THE LAST TIME

20 June 2008 00:05:24
1. 5 cents
2. 5 minutes
3. 47 days
idea

20 June 2008 14:10:55
later this week has pass...get on with it

21 June 2008 00:15:48
5 cents

5 minutes

47 days

21 June 2008 00:31:31
Iremember now is correct. However, it's time for Tom to show how the answers come about.

21 June 2008 12:17:35
ANSWERS:

Looks like most of you got them right, which means you are more cognitive than intuitive.

1) The answer is 5 cents, not 10 cents.

2) The answer is five minutes, not 100 minutes.

3) The correct answer is 47 days, not 24 days.

I got them all right as well, but it did take a few minutes of thinking. I suspect if one did not know the nature of the test, more would have gotten them wrong.

22 June 2008 00:33:46
I only got the 3rd one right on the first try. Then when I saw the answer to the 1st one...I had to do the math. I stll don't get the 5 minute one though.

22 June 2008 05:36:42
danimal,

If it takes five machines five minutes to make five widgets, then that means it takes each machine five minutes to make one widget. So, if you have 100 machines working for five minutes, each machine will produce one widget, which will total 100 widgets.

And getting the answers wrong only means you are more intuitive than cognitive. Like I said in my post, don't feel bad because most of the Florida trial judges tested got one or two of them wrong as well.

~tjl~

22 June 2008 12:00:48
Those danged widgets anyway. I fix broken stuff for a living, and our widget supplier is always out of them. Not real happy about having anything in common with trial judges either!!! wink

22 June 2008 17:49:53
Danimal,
Haah, you make me laugh. Is your supplier from China?

22 June 2008 18:06:03
Yay smile I got all 3 right... though it's rather disturbing that so many of our judges would not be smart enough to recognize such obvious trick-questions when they saw them :/

01 July 2008 22:15:09



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